Wild Falls

About Wild Falls

In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

Besides revenue collection, another concern is legal and economic. Companies have paid over BRL2.5 billion for licences since the sector’s regulation. Certainly, the end of the activity would lead to litigation to recover the amounts paid and compensation for investments made. Furthermore, the revenue from betting is already included in the Annual Budget Law and the Budget Guidelines Law, which define the priorities for federal government spending.

What worries the sector is not just the threat of drastic measures against legalised betting. So far, the government has consistently fallen short in its attempts to curb the illegal market, which still represents almost half of the segment.

How to play Wild Falls

Streaming is also becoming part of the product. Monk said prediction market interfaces had moved beyond their earlier trading-led presentation to incorporate streams, player propositions and combinations resembling sportsbook bet builders.

“It was still very much a trading kind of UX,” he said of Kalshi at the beginning of the year. “The actual product offering has come a long way.”

Andrew Gonzalez, founder of prediction market infrastructure startup ParlayX, believes the ability of small teams to provide liquidity is one of the sector’s defining features. “Anyone can be a market maker,” he said. “You have these two- or three-man shops.”

About Wild Falls

Messaging and targeted advertising: The restriction also extends to instant messaging, SMS, email, notifications, advertising automatically targeted by algorithms, telemarketing – which shows ads again to people who have already been exposed to certain content – and profiling based on user behaviour.

Other means of dissemination: The prohibition includes advertising in electronic games and esports, sports uniforms and equipment, public transport and affiliate content, tipsters, comparison sites and other paid intermediaries.

Promotions and benefits: Bonuses, promotional credits, free bets, cashback, free spins, rewards and loyalty programmes used to encourage membership, retention or return to betting are prohibited.